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The Perils of Political Transformation: William Ruto's Journey from "Opposition" to Power

In the theatre of political dynamics, there exists a recurring narrative where figures ascend to prominence by vociferously opposing a prevailing order, only to embody the very principles they once denounced. This phenomenon, starkly observable in contemporary Kenyan politics, reveals a troubling trend that transcends mere political theatre, implicating fundamental issues of governance, integrity, and national identity. The Ruto Paradox: From Anti-State Capture to the Heart of Power William Ruto’s rise to political prominence was rooted in a fervent opposition to the concept of “deep state” and systemic state capture. His campaign resonated with many Kenyans disillusioned by entrenched corruption and elite manipulation. Ruto positioned himself as the champion of the ordinary citizen, a beacon of reform against the opaque machinations of entrenched power. However, upon assuming office, the very principles that propelled Ruto to power seemed to erode. His administration, initially celebr...

The One About The Intrigues And Goings-On At Nile Breweries And What They Portend For Uganda’s Advertising Industry

The Eagle has landed. In Uganda.
So apparently Greg Metcalf will not after all live to see the relinquishment by Moringa Ogilvy, otherwise known as The Brand House, as the sole and authorised agency of Nile Breweries Limited.

I formerly postulated that there exists (existed?) an enduring dogfight at the brewery pitting on the one hand advocates of the ‘one agency’ policy—including, but not limited to, the peculiar decision to hire a solitary entity to administer the advertising aspirations of all Nile Breweries brands or the sophistry and insipidity issuing therefrom—and on the other their sturdy adversaries intensely keen on marshalling these assorted brands to several different agencies. It is instructive to note that while Sales Director, Greg did meet reasonable resistance at NBL in particular, but also from the agency, because he espoused the minority opinion of this latter grouping. Fast-forward a couple of years and he materialised as Managing Director of Nile Breweries and hot on his heels the rumour that NBL was finally going to pitch; it suddenly appeared that he might at last have his way. Fast-forward yet again a couple of years and Greg Metcalf has mysteriously resigned. “What the actual fuck??” I hear you muse in concert. Well, as Mike Tyson famously observed, everyone has a plan until they are punched in the mouth.

It started going tits-up six months ago when the news broke that SABMiller Plc, the number two brewer in the world, of which Nile Breweries is a subsidiary, had been obtained by Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the world’s largest brewery, for the tidy sum of $103 billion—a deal that will henceforth account for one in every three beers sold worldwide originating from AB InBev. No sooner had their feet hit the ground than the new kids on the block ordered an internal audit at NBL which, according to some press reports, unearthed gross putrefaction in senior management. And because misery loves company, we are now also hearing belated but incredibly loud whispers concerning a gobsmacking 2.54 million litres of Club (their best-selling beer by far for the last decade) equalling two weeks’ worth of countrywide supply and valued at an eye-watering UGX. 16 billion, bizarrely going to shit on account of poisoning—presumably by design—and thereby upshooting an historic loss. Now this ludicrous episode veering wildly between the extremes of comedy and tragedy while altogether seeming like another blog post compulsively writing itself comes to unpropitious termination with the MD being sent behind the sun and sequentially cascading what has been described as “the massive resignation of senior managers at the top brewery” [sic].

The corollaries are straightforward.
  1. The mandarins and bean counters at AB InBev evidently intend to hit the ground running and have betrayed a proclivity for scorching the earth while doing so. They have made it plain that they are no respecters of persons and have absolutely zero regard for sacred cows. But the beer industry in Uganda is a peculiar animal, a tough nut to crack; just ask the folks over at Uganda Breweries. Nile Breweries have over the years streamlined their domination of the market into an art form, completely running rings around Uganda Breweries, leaving them desperately clueless on their ascendance to 60% market share and, at 2.45 hectolitres, are hands-down the number one provider of locally produced beer. But all this hard work has been mostly due to the managers we’re currently seeing being kicked to the kerb and the strategies and networks they have invested in over time. So, what happens to all this cumulative experience and knowledge? Will it be tapped by the competition? Knowing AB InBev’s modus operandi, they have a plan to overhaul the system and supplanting their trusted lieutenants as evidenced by the fact that only one SABMiller executive was retained on the new company’s senior leadership team after the takeover. How well do they understand this market that has proven difficult for even old hands like Uganda Breweries? With whom are they intending to replace the power vacuum at Nile Breweries?
  2. As for the advertising fortunes of the industry, good things might just be on the offing as AB InBev has just kicked off a global media agency review with a view to “consolidate the business with potentially as few as one or to agencies”, a bold approach likely to influence a general agency overhaul altogether. How will this affect Africa, and Uganda in particular? SABMiller has a long association with Ogilvy but lately there have been shake-ups at Ogilvy CT and Ogilvy Jo’burg, and some of the people hitherto handling the SABMiller account have been shuffled about or terminated. Agency selection and media planning had been previously managed locally or regionally and the incumbent on the American business is WPP’s MediaCom. But a shift to consolidate might see local agencies clamouring for international affiliations as we wait to see who clinches this huge business. I also see a situation where local agencies will start merging or selling out in an attempt to build capacity for the future. Considering what local agencies have been enduring lately, that would be a much welcome development. We are bound to end up with just a handful of monolithic agencies in the sector, which must come as an unfortunate turn of phrase on my part because many of my readers suggest that I’m against the Big Agency model. Far from it; my peeve arises from the way Ugandan agencies are being managed and run. 

In all this, that gem of wisdom from Mark Knopfler rings acutely poignant:

There’s so many different worlds
So many different suns
And we have just one world
But we live in different ones

Annexe
I am reliably informed that the place to have been on Friday the 31st of March 2017 was MetropolitanRepublic Uganda, Block A, 2nd Floor, Plot 1-4 Nyonyi Gardens, Kololo, Kampala [sic]. This is because it was ostensibly going down massively at that once esteemed agency. It’s on record that ‘MetroPolitics’ is precariously on the precipice, particularly since they shockingly lost the MTN account, and are altogether contemplating exiting the market. And now, add insult to injury and it’s emerging that they were grappling with Bloody Friday as an astonishing 16 staff members were being put to pasture on that day, including the CD (oba ACD??), fresh from clinching the Stanbic account. It would seem that Ugandan agencies have a lasting romance with Fridays: Fideli pulled it off seamlessly a couple of months ago, then Moringa and now Metro.

Now, I’m going to be a tad cheeky and sprinkle a trifling of intrigue into the whole affair: it transpires that I actually have TWO sources for this story, diametrically opposed in their rendering of the proceedings. My second source adamantly and completely disconfirms the above, only corroborating that Metro is indeed laying off people—the exact number is unknown—and that there does exist a list of casualties-to-be, but the names on it are anyone’s guess. (Also off the gravy train going forward will be the agency van, I’m told). As these things tend to go, time, beyond healing all wounds, also holds the answers. So we wait to see what this week has in store for MetroPolitics.

The unasked question then on every single mouth in the industry is the one I will now pose: where are all these people going to end up, what with every other agency dropping staff every other week like hot potatoes? Tussaba gavumenti etuyambe!

******


I’m often amused and in no small way utterly bemused when I encounter individuals (some allegedly seasoned drinkers) who cannot, for the love of beer, differentiate between Nile Breweries and Uganda Breweries, and find it rather heavy going to tell the products apart. “It’s easy for you because you work in the industry and write beer ads,” is always the refrain when I lay on them my well-practiced stern look. Granted, I have written some of the more memorable beer ads in East Africa: Pilsner, Pilsner Ice, Nile Special and Club; but I still cannot wrap my head around someone taking a Castle Lite, all the while assuming that it comes from Uganda Breweries. This almost always leaves one flustered and out of sorts. So in the interest of World Peace and goodwill towards men (and women), I will illustrate, in graphical terms, the real difference between our two great breweries. And if ever you chance to find me with a Bell in hand, then things will have come to a pretty pass.

Nile Breweries beers



Uganda Breweries beers


******

For reasons inexplicable, the lyrics to that eternal ode to derelict love forever lost, It Doesn’t Matter Anymore by Eva Cassidy (#RIP), constantly weave up and down and in and out of my mind like a tapestry. (Contrary to popular belief and for all intents and purposes, let it be henceforth and hereby known by and to all and sundry that I am a hopeless romantic.) Maybe it is due to the quaint disposition of this post, or perhaps it’s because I’ve been listening to the song on loop for the better part of the last half hour. Whichever the case, it seems like a good way to end an unusual blog post:

There you go, baby
Here am I where you
Left me so I could sit and cry
Golly, gee, what have you done to me?
But I guess it doesn’t matter anymore.

Do you remember, baby
Last September how you
Held me tight each and every night?
Oh, baby, how you drove me crazy!
Well, I guess it doesn’t matter anymore.

There ain’t no use in me cryin’
‘Cause I’ve done everything
And now I’m sick of tryin’
I’ve thrown away my nights
Wasted all my days over you...

Now you go your way, baby
And I’ll go mine
Now and forever till the end of time
I’ve found somebody new, baby
We’ll say we’re through
You won’t matter anymore.


One of these days I will be able to play this song if it kills me.

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